That thudding sound you hear... is Apple kicking its competitors while they're already down

Even though it won't be released for a few months yet, iPhone OS 3.0 has already made more than a few ripples in the pond of mobile OSes. Like a tsunami in which the wave grows as it reaches the shore, these ripples are going to grow to waves big enough to swamp some of the smaller boats once OS 3.0 takes hold. Full disclosure -- I'm an iPhone user. And, while I'm excited about many of the new end-user features that Apple detailed in its OS 3.0 preview, the iPhone's impact will go far beyond new features such as MMS and cut-and-paste.

Some people don't get the iPhone thing. To them, the iPhone is just a phone. Not only that, but it's an expensive phone, with fewer features than brand X, worse specs than brand Y, less battery life than brand Z, and without a replaceable battery or upgradable memory like brands X, Y ,and Z! Whatever...

For the past two years, those arguments were going to spell the death of Apple's phone. 17 Million iPhones later, and with a growth curve and user satisfaction score that any other phone maker would kill for, I think we can safely put those petty arguments behind us. The reality is that the iPhone is a popular phone, it's growth curve is still exponential, and it hasn't even gone on sale in China--yet! Besides, how many clones of WinMob or Crackberry phones do see on eBay?

No, to really understand the iPhone thing, you have to use one. Use an iPhone day-in and day-out, but most importantly, use it the way Apple intended (easier on a Mac, with its Address Book, iCal, and iPhoto integration, as well as Mail sync, Safari sync, and Mobile Me). Once you've done this for a while, and worked within the system Apple created for you (rather than having to create your own system that works for your and your phone), you might get it. It's one of those "Use the Force, Luke. Let go, Luke!" moments where you need to jump into a different mindset, and not everyone will. I won't convert you. I do know that Apple's system works for me.

Apple's 'system' is the reason the iPhone will continue to grow in popularity. Apple is a design company with decent engineering talent. Most other computer companies are either engineering companies, or good copiers. Very few are good at design. Apple's design talent is to focus on the features that 90% of users need, engineer the product to seamlessly (and often button-lessly!) support that feature, and then to leave out all other features. The features built-into the iPhone are a joy to use. The features that are missing will either arrive in OS 3.0, or 4.0, or aren't important enough to be deal-breakers.

The original iPhone did so many things so well that most of it's competitors rushed to emulate it. All of the competing manufacturers that claimed you can't type without a keyboard now make touch screen phones. All of the competitors that claimed to surf the web using WAP or proxy browsers now have embedded web browsers that do a passable job of displaying most websites. All of the 'serious' business phones now suddenly help their users de-stress at the end of the business day by playing music and videos. Like it or not, thank Apple for using the iPhone to raise the bar that everyone else is now sweating to jump over.

Along with the software that powers the iPhone and the iTunes software to support it, there is also the huge impact of the software and App Store ecosystem. Answer the following honestly: on how many of your cell phones did you 1) receive free software updates that not only fixed bugs, but also added new features, 2) have the ability to select and install a huge variety of music, movies, games, and other third-party software, and 3) pay a low price for--and at the same time have brain-dead simple access and organization of--the user-installed content? None? Yeah, me neither, until I got my iPhone.

Apple's software ecosystem is the iPhone's 'killer app'. Don't think so? Why have Microsoft, RIM, Google and Palm all made announcements about setting up their own app stores in the past few months? Even with their own app stores, they will all have to fight Apple's mindshare. Apple will have sold over 1,000,000,000 (yes, billion! And, yes, many are free.) apps by the time most of them get their own app stores open. They've sold 800,000,000 already, and the growth curve is exponential.

iPhone OS 3.0 introduces new usability features for users, but more importantly delivers around 1,000 new APIs for software developers. Not hastily kludged-together bolt-ons, but rather well-designed features that a majority of developers can easily put to use. Look at the delay in Apple's push notification server roll-out from OS 2.0 to 3.0. Apple is not afraid of holding something back until it works exactly like the designers intended. Other companies would release it anyway, as an engineering bullet point that looks good on a spec sheet, but in reality as something less than useful because of problems inherent in its design.

Put all the pieces together, and you have the making of a perfect storm. Nearly two years from the launch of the original iPhone, Apple's competitors are still struggling with making hardware that's as well-engineered and functional as the iPhone's (seen a capacitive multi-touch screen on any other phones?), making software that's as elegant and functional (mobile Safari still puts any other mobile browser to shame), and providing updates and apps to end users (when will Windows Mobile 6.5 be released?). And, Apple is not a stationary target. iPhone OS 2.0 was quickly followed by 2.1, 2.2, and 2.2.1. The number of iPhone users is climbing. The number of iPhone apps is climbing. New developers see the number of Apple users and jump to the Apple platform, helping it to build momentum. The combined force of all of these attributes is going to make the wave bigger. Some competitors will get washed away. It's the nature of the ecosystem.

Don't believe me? That's ok. I was there in the 80's when you could get a Commodore 64 for less than $200 at K-mart, and the Apple II had the education market all wrapped up. The Mac was revolutionary and new, the Atari ST was a colour Mac for less, and the Amiga 1000 was ten years ahead of its time. The TRS-80 Model 100 even ran for 20 hours on 4 AA batteries! The IBM PC did less, and cost more, but had an open ecosystem for hardware and software. Despite DOS, and then Windows, and now 20+ years later, we know how things turned out.